FHI evaluation: Norway unlikely to reach alcohol reduction target without stronger measures

30.06.2026 - The Norwegian Institute of Public Health (FHI) has published a qualitative midterm evaluation of Norway’s National Alcohol Strategy for 2021 to 2030. The evaluation was commissioned by the Ministry of Health and Care Services and asked FHI to assess both the implementation of the strategy and whether Norway’s target of a 20 percent reduction in alcohol consumption from 2010 to 2030 is realistic with today’s policy instruments.

The strategy contains six priority areas and 42 proposed measures to reduce harmful alcohol use. FHI’s overall assessment is that several limited and concrete measures have been carried out, while other parts of the strategy have either started late, remain unclear, or have not been sufficiently followed up. The work on early intervention in health services, one of the strategy’s broadest areas, appears to have been initiated for most measures only in spring 2026.

The main conclusion is clear: FHI does not consider it realistic for Norway to reach the 2030 target without stronger use of effective alcohol policy measures. Registered alcohol sales declined from 6.59 litres of pure alcohol per inhabitant aged 15 and over in 2010 to 5.98 litres in 2025, a reduction of about 9 percent over 15 years. To reach the 2030 target, consumption would need to fall by a further 0.7 litres in just five years.

FHI points out that the most effective tools for reducing alcohol consumption remain regulatory measures, particularly price and availability. Norway already has several such measures in place, including alcohol taxes, the licensing system, the Vinmonopolet monopoly, age limits, opening-hour restrictions and a ban on alcohol advertising. However, where FHI could identify changes during the strategy period, several had moved in a more liberal direction. The number of municipal serving licences increased by about 10 percent from 2020 to 2024, the number of sales licences for alcohol group 1 rose by about 2 percent, more municipalities allowed serving until 03:00, and the number of Vinmonopolet outlets increased by about 5 percent.

The evaluation also finds that several of the strategy’s softer measures, such as information, education, alcohol-free arenas and general competence building, may have value in a broader alcohol policy, but have limited evidence for reducing total consumption. FHI highlights a particular need to strengthen research on the effects and implementation of prevention measures, including systematic screening and follow-up in health services, health warning labelling, the Akan model in working life, and tools to support municipal alcohol policy.

To reach the 20 percent reduction target, FHI concludes that Norway would most likely need to use a package of stronger measures. The report points to higher alcohol taxes, tightening or removing the alcohol import quota, introducing health warning labels, and possibly substantial restrictions on the number of sales and serving places as well as sales and serving hours. FHI also notes that early intervention in health services should be strengthened, but considers it unlikely that this alone would reduce total alcohol consumption enough by 2030.

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Source: FHI